Passa ai contenuti principali

Predicting Bitcoin Value: Is a value of $50,000 realistic?

World Bitcoin Network has just released a newBitcoin Value Model. Let me begin by stating that this is a model, and no model can accurately state how much any currency is going to be worth at a point in the future. What the model can do, however, is show us how price is determined and the factors that determine it and the model can also allow us to factor in variables and view their effect.  In February of this year, the Financial Times received an eMail predicting a $50,000 Bitcoin value. Their response was to remind people that Wall Street traders use models:
“While the eMail pointing to a $50,000 bitcoin is imprecise to say the least, It’s a starting point. A more rigorous mathematical model integrating demand projections with probabilities of certain make-or-break contingencies isn’t just possible – it already exists, in various versions, across various investors’ hard drives.”

CCN
Bitcoin has, seen as an asset, outperformed almost every other asset on Earth over the past five years. However, we cannot predict with certainty the Bitcoin value going forward simply because almost everything in the World can affect price and it is impossible to factor, anything other than a very small few of, these factors in. One of the most important factors must be Transaction Volume (The volume of bitcoins exchanged over any given period.) and today (29 June) that stands at 50,577 transactions. We must remember that someone sending themselves bitcoins, one wallet to another, will show. We must use the Transaction Volume figure cautiously. Another factor that will affect Bitcoin value is the level of positivity of the market. If people looking at bitcoins see good news they tend to buy in, if they see bad news they tend to sell. When China dictated that the PBOC should be anti-cryptocurrency the market negativity forced the price of a bitcoin down; when Tiger.com came on board the value of a single bitcoin rose. The changes in positivity levels lead to people choosing to sell short and others to buy when they see the price as deflated and this leads to the important issue of volatility. Volatility is caused by people choosing to buy and sell bitcoins. Volatility is a significant factor in predicting Bitcoin Value going forward. Remember any currency must function as a means of exchange and also as a store of value. A volatile currency is a poor store of value, and this has led to traders accepting bitcoins to factor in a price margin to allow for volatility. This is the amount, over the dollar price, that traders charge for people choosing to pay with bitcoins.
Another important factor in predicting future Bitcoin value is the velocity, or the number of times that a unit of currency is used within a fixed period of time. Now, the lower the velocity, the higher the value. Remember, if velocity is high then that means there will have to be a higher number of transactions to achieve the total  transaction volume, as measured in fiat.  The $US has a transaction volume of 7, it is difficult to estimate the velocity of a bitcoin but it is in the 50-1oo. The next factor we must be aware of is Supply. Now, there are just under 13 Million bitcoins in circulation, but many of these may well be lost, others are held and therefore are not used for transactions. We talk about Liquidity, the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without affecting the asset’s value. Liquidity is characterized by high levels of transaction volume. Now, if we accept that there are 13 Million bitcoins and if we assume that at least 1 Million are lost we must then look at the remaining 12 Million bitcoins and assume that a large proportion of these are hoarded by speculators, these coins are illiquid, the coins we spend and accept as payment are, on the other hand, liquid.
Remember, Gold is a great store of value, how much of that store can Bitcoin assume? More is better!
How much eCommerce can Bitcoin take up? More is better!
How much of the Global money supply can Bitcoin take up? More is better!
Black market as well as remittances,  the more, the better!
Number of bitcoins mined, the more mined, the lower the value of a single bitcoin.
Have a look and see what you think will affect the future value of Bitcoin. Will it hit $50,000 or $1 Million? You decide!
The model in use by Worldbitcoinnetwork can be found here.
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/predicting-bitcoin-value-50000/2014/07/06

Commenti

Posta un commento

Post popolari in questo blog

Have mymonero some problems ?

Hello, this is user pandher from BTCtalk. I have been a follower and holder of Monero since 2014 when the first bitmonero thread appeared on BTCtalk. Since that thread i knew Monero was the only one worth following. The professionalism and honesty of the dev team was a rare sight in that shitcoin madness. Checking the Monero reddit page and speculation thread had become a morning habit with me. I rarely missed reading both of these in these 2 years. I saw the community grow from a few hundred to a few thousand. It was so good to watch, to witness. Although i was mostly non vocal i felt myself as a part of this community. Reading AP's posts about the new world domination were exciting. But today i bid farewell to this wonderful community. All my Monero have been stolen Since zhalox posted about his lost Monero, i woke up from my slumber and created a cold wallet using GingerAle's paranoid method. Only to find out all my 4 MyMonero accounts were wiped on 3 september 2016. I...
Posta un commento
!--continua a leggere--

Dove le molecole smettono di Ur­tarsi: viaggio nella coerenza Quantistica della Vita

C’era un momento, nella storia della biologia, in cui la vita veniva immaginata come un enorme tavolo da biliardo. Molecole che si urtano. Collisioni casuali. Reazioni che accadono perché, semplicemente, qualcosa colpisce qualcos’altro nel modo giusto. Funzionava. Più o meno. Poi, lentamente, qualcosa ha iniziato a incrinarsi. Non perché quella visione fosse sbagliata, ma perché era incompleta. Troppo rumorosa. Troppo cieca. Troppo… inefficiente per spiegare ciò che osservavamo davvero. Perché dentro le cellule accadevano cose strane. Troppo veloci. Troppo precise. Troppo coordinate. Come se, invece di urtarsi alla cieca, le particelle… sapessero. Immagina di entrare dentro una cellula. Non troverai caos. Non troverai disordine. Troverai elettroni che scorrono come una valuta invisibile, scambiata con una precisione che sfida l’intuizione. Non saltano semplicemente da una molecola all’altra: a volte attraversano barriere che, secondo la fisica classica, non dovrebbero poter...
Posta un commento
!--continua a leggere--

Ingegneria del contesto per l'intelligenza artificiale avanzata

  Quando si parla di IA generativa, il dibattito pubblico si concentra spesso su due aspetti: la potenza del modello e la qualità dei prompt. Tuttavia, tra questi due poli si trova un'area meno discussa ma cruciale:  il contesto  . Non stiamo parlando solo di "informazioni extra" per il modello, ma dell'architettura logica e operativa che determina il modo in cui l'intelligenza artificiale interpreta, collega e utilizza i dati per fornire risultati accurati e coerenti. È qui che entra in gioco  l'ingegneria del contesto  : l'arte (e la scienza) di progettare, organizzare e ottimizzare il contesto di un Large Language Model (LLM) per guidarlo verso risposte più affidabili, precise e utili. Perché l'ingegneria del contesto è importante Un LLM non "capisce" il mondo come gli esseri umani. Elabora modelli statistici in base agli input che riceve e ai dati di training.  Il contesto  è la combinazione di istruzioni, esempi, dati di supporto e rifer...
Posta un commento
!--continua a leggere--